Other

Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

65% say yes

Down 4 points today.

Decided by cdc.gov, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 65¢ means about a 65% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.65%
What has to happen
There have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.35%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Price chart

Yes 65%No 35%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by cdc.gov

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on cdc.gov (cdc.gov). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: cdc.gov (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 10 times the usual hourly amount.
13m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory…”
“The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time.”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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