Geopolitics

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

1% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.1%
What has to happen
The United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.99%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.

Price chart

Yes 1%No 99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November…”
“The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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