Fed & Rates

Will the of the target rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?

5% say yes

Up 5 points today.

Decided by Board / , by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 5¢ means about a 5% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.5%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.95%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

Price chart

Yes 5%No 95%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 8.2 points in about 15 minutes, from 13.8¢ to 5.7¢. No official release came out at that time.
▲ No official news at the time · federalreserve.gov17m ago
The price rose 15.3 points in about 15 minutes, from 0.5¢ to 15.8¢. No official release came out at that time.
▲ No official news at the time · federalreserve.gov49m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsMoved without official news

Fine-print risk

Low (20/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Price moved -8.2 points (17m ago) without a primary release on the FED feed in the window.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Dec 9, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee…”
“If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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