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US Elections

Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

89% say Republicans win

Down 3 points today.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 89¢ means about an 89% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

There is one market for each possible winner (3 in all).

Possible results

  • RepublicansRepublicans win the election.89%

    What has to happen

    Republicans win, under the rules.

  • an Independentan Independent wins the election.11%

    What has to happen

    an Independent wins, under the rules.

  • DemocratsDemocrats win the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Democrats win, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls
Fine-print risk
Low (25/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not. Calls races on and after election night. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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