US Elections

Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

33% say Republicans win

Down 2 points today.

Decided by AP, Fox News and NBC race calls.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 33¢ means about a 33% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

There is one market for each possible winner (2 in all).

Possible results

DemocratsDemocrats win the election.67%
What has to happen
Democrats win, under the rules.
RepublicansRepublicans win the election.33%
What has to happen
Republicans win, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes 33%No 67%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: race calls after election daySettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: Settles on AP, Fox News and NBC race calls.
Fine print: It settles on the race calls after election day, not at a set time. Election day: Tue, Nov 7, 2028. Polymarket’s listed end date is Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
38m ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.”
“If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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