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US Elections

Will the Republican Party hold between 170 and 174 House after the 2026 midterm elections?

20% say yes

Down 17 points today.

Decided by major news reports.

Results can take until January 4, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 20¢ means about a 20% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • Yes20%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.80%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: major news reports.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year.
  • If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 3.1 points in about 15 minutes, from 25.9¢ to 22.7¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus1h ago

  • The price rose 3 points in about 15 minutes, from 21.8¢ to 24.8¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

  • The price fell 4.8 points in about 15 minutes, from 30.4¢ to 25.6¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus3h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the official announcement
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States…”
  • “If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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