US Elections
Will the Republican Party hold 48 or more Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?
42% say yes
Down 6 points today.
Decided by major news reports.
Results can take until January 4, 2027.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 42¢ means about a 42% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
Possible results
Yes42%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.58%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.
What the news says
Representative Debbie Dingell stated that this endorsement has caused significant frustration within the Democratic Party.
Sources checked 12:01 AM ET
See sources (1)
News data from GDELT and publisher news feeds. AI summary in our own words. Read the original articles at the links.
The one trap
Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
See all fine print
- If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year.
- If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
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