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US Elections

Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?

92% say yes

Up 1 point today.

Decided by official election authority, by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 92¢ means about a 92% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.92%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.8%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: Official election authority.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Federal Election Commission.

See all fine print
  • Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 90.5¢ to 93.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: Election Commission49m ago

  • The price rose 5.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 83¢ to 88.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: Election Commission2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as written, time zone not statedSettled by Election Commission
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Official election authority (Election Commission). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with no time zone stated for the deadline. Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM (time zone not stated).

Source named: Election Commission (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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