US Elections
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?
<1% say yes
About the same as yesterday.
Decided by major news reports.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
Possible results
Yes<1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.
What the news says
The source says Alaska's government asked a federal judge to dismiss a lawsuit filed by the Trump administration regarding the certification of a U.S. Senate race. The lawsuit seeks to halt the certification of a potential win by Democrat Mary Peltola over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan due to concerns about voter confusion.
Sources checked 7:30 AM ET
See sources (1)
News data from GDELT and publisher news feeds. AI summary in our own words. Read the original articles at the links.
The one trap
Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
See all fine print
- If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year.
- If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
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