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Bitcoin

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 31?

84% say yes

Up 56 points today.

Decided by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, by October 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 84¢ means about an 84% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The price is read from Binance (the BTC/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules.

Possible results

  • YesThe price ends up where the question says, at the time and source the rules name.84%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by October 31, 2026.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.16%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by October 31, 2026.

The one trap

It uses the Binance price at 12:00 ET, not prices from other exchanges or websites.

Price chart
-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, Yes orders vs No orders in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 4 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.

    31m ago

  • Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.

    1h ago

  • Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.

    2h ago

  • Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.

    2h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone…”
  • “Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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