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Bitcoin

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 1?

31% say yes

Down 30 points today.

Decided by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, by November 1, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 31¢ means about a 31% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The price is read from Binance (the BTC/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules.

Possible results

  • YesThe price ends up where the question says, at the time and source the rules name.31%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by November 1, 2026.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.69%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by November 1, 2026.

The one trap

It uses the Binance price at 12:00 ET, not prices from other exchanges or websites.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 21.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 52.4¢ to 31.4¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)14m ago

  • The price fell 3.3 points in about 15 minutes, from 57.3¢ to 54¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)1h ago

  • The price rose 15.6 points in about 15 minutes, from 40¢ to 55.6¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone…”
  • “Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 1?: explained simply · MarketWeaver