Other

Will the official for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 75,000 and 80,000?

<1% say yes

Down 7 points today.

Decided by finance.yahoo.com, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.<1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by finance.yahoo.com

Fine-print risk

Low (10/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on finance.yahoo.com (finance.yahoo.com). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Wed, Dec 30, 2026, 7:00 PM ET.

Source named: finance.yahoo.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the official closing price for the Nikkei 225 (NI225) on the final trading day of December 2026, reported in…”
“If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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