MarketWeaver
Log inSign up

Other

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?

12% say yes

Down 17 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Results can take until December 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 12¢ means about a 12% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Yes wins if: Any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.12%

    What has to happen

    Any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.88%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives.
  • If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
Price chart
-Yes chance

Loading...

Recorded moves

  • The price fell 3.1 points in about 15 minutes, from 16.2¢ to 13¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

  • The price fell 4.6 points in about 15 minutes, from 18.6¢ to 13.9¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus3h ago

  • The price fell 6.7 points in about 15 minutes, from 22.1¢ to 15.4¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus4h ago

  • The price fell 3.4 points in about 15 minutes, from 26.2¢ to 22.8¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus4h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will…”
  • “This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.

By joining you agree to our Privacy Policy.