Other

Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?

No live price for this market yet.

Decided by LMArena / Chatbot Arena leaderboard, by June 30, 2027.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

There is no live market linked to this card yet, so there are no prices to show.

The one trap

If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard.

See all fine print

If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as "No".

Show details for experienced traders

The details

No live order bookRule note: the condition as writtenSettled by arena.ai leaderboard

Chance the crowd gives Yes

no live price

Yes orders vs No orders near the price

no order list read

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
Official source: settlement runs on LMArena / Chatbot Arena leaderboard (arena.ai), style control off. Is read at the stated check time. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: arena.ai leaderboard (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified…”
“The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.”
“If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model…”

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