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Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?

85% say yes

Down 3 points today.

Decided by LMArena / Chatbot Arena leaderboard, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 85¢ means about an 85% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.85%

    What has to happen

    The next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.15%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard.

See all fine print
  • If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as "No".
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 4.1 points in about 15 minutes, from 79.5¢ to 83.6¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: arena.ai leaderboard3h ago

  • The price rose 3.1 points in about 15 minutes, from 73.6¢ to 76.7¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: arena.ai leaderboard5h ago

  • The price fell 3.3 points in about 15 minutes, from 75.7¢ to 72.4¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: arena.ai leaderboard6h ago

  • The price rose 3.3 points in about 15 minutes, from 71.7¢ to 75¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: arena.ai leaderboard8h ago

  • The price fell 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 74.3¢ to 71.3¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: arena.ai leaderboard9h ago

  • The price rose 3.1 points in about 15 minutes, from 68.5¢ to 71.6¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: arena.ai leaderboard10h ago

  • The price rose 7.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 61¢ to 68.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: arena.ai leaderboard10h ago

  • The price rose 6.8 points in about 15 minutes, from 60.2¢ to 67¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: arena.ai leaderboard11h ago

  • The price fell 13.8 points in about 15 minutes, from 74.2¢ to 60.4¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: arena.ai leaderboard11h ago

  • The price fell 9.1 points in about 15 minutes, from 83.5¢ to 74.4¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: arena.ai leaderboard12h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by arena.ai leaderboard
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on LMArena / Chatbot Arena leaderboard (arena.ai), style control off. Is read at the stated check time. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: arena.ai leaderboard (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.

    2h ago

  • Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.

    3h ago

  • Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.

    4h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified…”
  • “The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.”
  • “If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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