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Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?

62% say yes

Up 31 points today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 62¢ means about a 62% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Houthi military forces enter any part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.62%

    What has to happen

    Houthi military forces enter any part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.38%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 65.5¢ to 62¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus4m ago

  • The price fell 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 66.5¢ to 63¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus1h ago

  • The price rose 6.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 60.5¢ to 66.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the official announcement
  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by the specified date, 11:59 PM…”
  • “The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.”
  • “If Houthi entry into Saudi Arabia is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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