Fed & Rates
Will by 0.25 points on Dec 9?
79% say a raise
No price change recorded today yet.
Decided by the Fed’s statement after its meeting (by December 9, 2026).
Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
After its December 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve announces whether it will change the interest . It is one of 5 related markets, one for each possible decision.
Possible results
Any raiseBorrowing tends to cost more, and savings tend to pay a bit more.79%
What has to happen
Raise by 0.25 points (25 bps) (77%): The Fed’s statement raises the top of its target range by 0.25 percentage points (25 basis points).
Raise by 0.5 points (50 bps) or more (2%): The Fed’s statement raises the top of its target range by 0.5 percentage points (50 basis points) or more.
No changeRates stay the same, so loan and savings rates tend to stay put.21%
What has to happen
The Fed’s statement keeps the top of its target range the same as before the meeting.
Any cutBorrowing tends to cost less, and savings tend to pay a bit less.1%
What has to happen
Lower by 0.25 points (25 bps) (<1%): The Fed’s statement lowers the top of its target range by 0.25 percentage points (25 basis points).
Lower by 0.5 points (50 bps) or more (<1%): The Fed’s statement lowers the top of its target range by 0.5 percentage points (50 basis points) or more.
Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.
Why the price is where it is
These are the Fed’s own documents from its recent meetings. They are the official background traders read. We list them without predicting the result.
The one trap
If a government shutdown delays the report, each venue handles the delay in its own way. Check the rules.
See all fine print
- If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market settles as the "No change" bracket.