US Elections

Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?

85% say Democrats win

Up 2 points today.

Decided by AP, Fox News and NBC race calls (official certification if they disagree).

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 85¢ means about an 85% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

There is one market for each possible winner (2 in all).

Possible results

DemocratsDemocrats win the election.85%
What has to happen
Democrats win, under the rules.
RepublicansRepublicans win the election.16%
What has to happen
Republicans win, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: AP, Fox News and NBC race calls (official certification if they disagree).

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes 85%No 15%

-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls

Fine-print risk

Low (25/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: Settles on AP, Fox News and NBC race calls (official certification if they disagree).
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
11m ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
42m ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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