US Elections

Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?

37% say Democratic Party wins

Up 5 points today.

Decided by official election authority, by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 37¢ means about a 37% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

Republican PartyRepublican Party wins.63%
What has to happen
Republican Party wins, under the rules.
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party wins.37%
What has to happen
Democratic Party wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Federal Election Commission.

See all fine print

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes 37%No 63%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 18.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 56¢ to 37.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: Election Commission1h ago
The price rose 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 48.5¢ to 52.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: Election Commission2h ago

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The details

Rule note: the condition as written, time zone not statedSettled by Election Commission

Fine-print risk

Low (20/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, Yes orders vs No orders in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Official election authority (Election Commission). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with no time zone stated for the deadline. Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM (time zone not stated).

Source named: Election Commission (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
18m ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
48m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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