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US Elections

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%?

5% say Democratic Party candidate wins

Down 13 points today.

Decided by the election on November 3, 2026, using major news reports.

Results can take until June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 5¢ means about a 5% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. There is one market for each possible winner (2 in all).

Possible results

  • Democratic Party candidateDemocratic Party candidate wins the election.5%

    What has to happen

    Democratic Party candidate wins, under the rules.

  • Republican Party candidateRepublican Party candidate wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Republican Party candidate wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

What the news says

The source says Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are competing in a Texas Senate race. The source says Elon Musk has contributed over $150 million to support Paxton's campaign efforts.

Sources checked Nov 3, 10:21 PM ET

See sources (1)

News data from GDELT and publisher news feeds. AI summary in our own words. Read the original articles at the links.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, the market settles as the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
  • If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, the market settles as the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 4 points in about 15 minutes, from 2.5¢ to 6.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus16m ago

  • The price rose 4.7 points in about 15 minutes, from 1.2¢ to 5.9¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus1h ago

  • The price fell 14.3 points in about 15 minutes, from 16¢ to 1.7¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

  • The price fell 12.3 points in about 15 minutes, from 28.1¢ to 15.8¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.”
  • “If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%?: explained simply · MarketWeaver