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Fed & Rates

Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?

52% say Raise by 0.25 points (25 bps)

Down 17 points today.

Decided by Bank of Canada official website, by December 9, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 52¢ means about a 52% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • Raise by 0.25 points (25 bps)Borrowing tends to cost more, and savings tend to pay a bit more.52%

    What has to happen

    The bank raises its rate by 0.25 percentage points.

  • No changeRates stay the same, so loan and savings rates tend to stay put.47%

    What has to happen

    The bank leaves its rate the same.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement.

See all fine print
  • If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, the market settles as the “No Change” bracket.
Price chart
-Yes chance

Recorded moves

  • The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 42¢ to 45.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: Bank of Canada official website1h ago

  • The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 39¢ to 42.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: Bank of Canada official website2h ago

  • The price fell 12 points in about 15 minutes, from 51¢ to 39¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: Bank of Canada official website3h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by Bank of Canada official website
Fine-print risk
Low (25/100)
settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Bank of Canada official website (bankofcanada.ca). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Dec 9, 2026 (time zone not stated).

Source named: Bank of Canada official website (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading picked up (about 4 times the usual hourly amount).

    47m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate…”
  • “If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?: explained simply · MarketWeaver