Fed & Rates
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 at the December interest rate announcement?
52% say Raise by 0.25 points (25 bps)
Up 17 points today.
Decided by Bank of Canada official website, by December 9, 2026.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 52¢ means about a 52% chance.
Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
Possible results
Raise by 0.25 points (25 bps)Borrowing tends to cost more, and savings tend to pay a bit more.52%
What has to happen
The bank raises its rate by 0.25 percentage points.
No changeRates stay the same, so loan and savings rates tend to stay put.47%
What has to happen
The bank leaves its rate the same.
Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.
The one trap
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement.
See all fine print
- If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, the market settles as the “No Change” bracket.
Price chart
Recorded moves
The price fell 4.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 56.5¢ to 52¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: Bank of Canada official website1h ago
The price fell 4.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 58.5¢ to 54¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: Bank of Canada official website2h ago
The price rose 14.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 44.5¢ to 58.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: Bank of Canada official website3h ago
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