Other

Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?

49% say yes

Down 6 points today.

Decided by home.treasury.gov, by January 14, 2027.

Polymarket lists December 31, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until January 14, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 49¢ means about a 49% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.49%
What has to happen
The Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.51%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.

The one trap

If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as "No".

Price chart

Yes 49%No 51%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 7.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 57¢ to 50¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: home.treasury.gov2h ago

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by home.treasury.gov

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: home.treasury.gov. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Jan 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: home.treasury.gov (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading picked up (about 13 times the usual hourly amount).
6m ago
Trading picked up (about 13 times the usual hourly amount).
36m ago
Trading picked up (about 13 times the usual hourly amount).
1h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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