Other

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.8% before 2027?

72% say yes

Up 9 points today.

Decided by home.treasury.gov, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 72¢ means about a 72% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.72%
What has to happen
The Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.28%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.

The one trap

If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

Price chart

Yes 72%No 28%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 5.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 72¢ to 77¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: home.treasury.gov1h ago

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by home.treasury.gov

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: home.treasury.gov. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026.

Source named: home.treasury.gov (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading picked up (about 10 times the usual hourly amount).
11m ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

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