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US Elections

Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

32% say yes

Up 26 points today.

Decided by major news reports.

Results can take until June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 32¢ means about a 32% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Yes wins if: The listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election.

Possible results

  • Yes32%

    What has to happen

    The listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.68%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by April 18, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place.
  • If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “No”.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 3.9 points in about 15 minutes, from 28.1¢ to 32¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus10m ago

  • The price rose 3.6 points in about 15 minutes, from 27.7¢ to 31.3¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus55m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the event happening and being officially reported
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sun, Apr 18, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French…”
  • “The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting…”
  • “If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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