Geopolitics

Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

40% say yes

Up 7 points today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 40¢ means about a 40% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.40%
What has to happen
The listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.60%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 40%No 60%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 10 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago
Trading rose to about 10 times the usual hourly amount.
3h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and…”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.