Other

Will Samuel Alito announce his by June 30, 2027?

34% say yes

Down 19 points today.

Decided by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM , under the rules.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 34¢ means about a 34% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.34%
What has to happen
Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.66%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 34%No 66%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo source named

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

No resolution source named in the rules

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of…”
“The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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