Geopolitics

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?

61% say yes

Up 7 points today.

Decided by polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com, by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 61¢ means about a 61% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.61%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.39%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap may be used.

See all fine print

If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of trusted news reports may be used.

Price chart

Yes 61%No 39%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 4.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 57.5¢ to 62¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com2h ago
The price rose 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 50.5¢ to 53.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com4h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com (polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Mar 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
3h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast…”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map.”
“Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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