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Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

8% say Reservists and New Economic Party wins

Down 33 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by October 31, 2027.

Polymarket lists November 30, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until October 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 8¢ means about an 8% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 30, 2026), the answer is No.

Possible results

  • Ra'amRa'am wins.>99%

    What has to happen

    The listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

  • RZP-ZehutRZP-Zehut wins.98%

    What has to happen

    The listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

  • Reservists and New Economic PartyReservists and New Economic Party wins.8%

    What has to happen

    The listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

  • Amcha YisraelAmcha Yisrael wins.2%

    What has to happen

    The listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

Show 1 more results
  • Blue & WhiteBlue & White wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    The listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results.

See all fine print
  • Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
Price chart
-Yes chance

Recorded moves

  • The price fell 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 10¢ to 6¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: gov.il (tiebreak)50m ago

  • The price fell 3 points in about 15 minutes, from 15.5¢ to 12.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: gov.il (tiebreak)2h ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by gov.il (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (gov.il) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 6:59 PM ET.

Source named: gov.il (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading picked up (about 4 times the usual hourly amount).

    20m ago

  • Trading picked up (about 3 times the usual hourly amount).

    1h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

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