US Elections

Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?

81% say yes

Up 13 points today.

Decided by major news reports.

Results can take until March 31, 2028.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 81¢ means about an 81% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe person named in the question wins the election.81%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by May 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.19%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.

See all fine print

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes 81%No 19%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by stat.gov.rs (tiebreak)

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (stat.gov.rs) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, May 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: stat.gov.rs (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election.”
“The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027.”
“If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.