US Elections

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

53% say yes

Up 8 points today.

Decided by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM , under the rules.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 53¢ means about a 53% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: It is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.53%
What has to happen
It is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.47%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The official result comes from the Trump administration.

Price chart

Yes 53%No 47%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 49¢ to 52¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
No official data feed2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs formal signingNo source named

Fine-print risk

Medium (40/100)

settles on the date it takes effect

Official source: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

No resolution source named in the rules

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be…”
“The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.”
“An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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