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Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus

The short version

How to read this page

There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

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The details

No live order bookRule note: stated conditionNo single official source
Chance the crowd gives Yes
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no live price
Buyers vs sellers near the price
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no order book read
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
Stated Condition
  • Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Fri, Mar 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) Deadline: Fri, Mar 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus
Fine-print risk: Low (15/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 15
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
2.
Deadline and time zone
Fri, Mar 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET."
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver