MarketWeaver

US Elections

Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

3% say Patricia Bullrich wins

Up 1 point today.

Decided by the election on October 24, 2027, using major news reports.

Results can take until October 31, 2028.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 3¢ means about a 3% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. There is one market for each possible winner (21 in all).

Possible results

  • Javier MileiJavier Milei wins the election.45%

    What has to happen

    Javier Milei wins, under the rules.

  • Axel KicillofAxel Kicillof wins the election.34%

    What has to happen

    Axel Kicillof wins, under the rules.

  • Sergio MassaSergio Massa wins the election.15%

    What has to happen

    Sergio Massa wins, under the rules.

  • Patricia BullrichPatricia Bullrich wins the election.3%

    What has to happen

    Patricia Bullrich wins, under the rules.

Show 17 more results
  • Cristina Fernández de KirchnerCristina Fernández de Kirchner wins the election.1%

    What has to happen

    Cristina Fernández de Kirchner wins, under the rules.

  • Myriam BregmanMyriam Bregman wins the election.1%

    What has to happen

    Myriam Bregman wins, under the rules.

  • Daniel HadadDaniel Hadad wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Daniel Hadad wins, under the rules.

  • Mauricio MacriMauricio Macri wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Mauricio Macri wins, under the rules.

  • Juan SchiarettiJuan Schiaretti wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Juan Schiaretti wins, under the rules.

  • Dante GebelDante Gebel wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Dante Gebel wins, under the rules.

  • Karina MileiKarina Milei wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Karina Milei wins, under the rules.

  • Lionel MessiLionel Messi wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Lionel Messi wins, under the rules.

  • Juan GraboisJuan Grabois wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Juan Grabois wins, under the rules.

  • Esteban BullrichEsteban Bullrich wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Esteban Bullrich wins, under the rules.

  • Facundo ManesFacundo Manes wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Facundo Manes wins, under the rules.

  • Victoria VillarruelVictoria Villarruel wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Victoria Villarruel wins, under the rules.

  • Nicolás del CañoNicolás del Caño wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Nicolás del Caño wins, under the rules.

  • Alberto FernándezAlberto Fernández wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Alberto Fernández wins, under the rules.

  • Guillermo MorenoGuillermo Moreno wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Guillermo Moreno wins, under the rules.

  • Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de PedroEduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro wins, under the rules.

  • Máximo KirchnerMáximo Kirchner wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Máximo Kirchner wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results.

See all fine print
  • Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
Price chart
-Yes chance

Loading...

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by electoral.gob.ar (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (electoral.gob.ar) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sun, Oct 24, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: electoral.gob.ar (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.”
  • “If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.

By joining you agree to our Privacy Policy.