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Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Source: Credible-reporting consensus · End date Oct 26, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Olivia Chow winning the 2026 Toronto mayoral election at more than 99%.

It rose 26 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

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The details

Rule note: stated conditionNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
Stated Condition

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (election day); hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET Deadline: Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (election day). Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

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Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensus
Fine-print risk: Low (15/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 15
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)
2.
Deadline and time zone
Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (election day); hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election."
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.

Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver