Tech

Will Nvidia’s be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026?

44% say yes

Up 18 points today.

Decided by December 31, 2026, under the rules.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 44¢ means about a 44% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.44%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.56%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 44%No 56%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 11.1 points in about 15 minutes, from 58.1¢ to 47¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
No official data feed1h ago
The price rose 5.8 points in about 15 minutes, from 49.7¢ to 55.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
No official data feed2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsNo source named

Fine-print risk

Medium (50/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 6:59 PM ET.

No resolution source named in the rules

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
23m ago
Trading rose to about 10 times the usual hourly amount.
53m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.”
“If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.