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Geopolitics

Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?

59% say yes

Down 3 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 59¢ means about a 59% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.59%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.41%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, the market settles as “Other - Middle East/North Africa.” If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, the market settles as “Other - Europe.” For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S.

See all fine print
  • If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, the market settles as “Other.” If no qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “No Meeting by December 31.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of trusted news reports.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the official announcement
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading rose to about 20 times the usual hourly amount.

    17m ago

  • Trading rose to about 20 times the usual hourly amount.

    47m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the country in which the next direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran begins…”
  • “If no qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by December 31.””

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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