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Fed & Rates

Will no one dissent the October decision?

<1% say yes

Down 22 points today.

Decided by the Fed’s statement after its meeting (by October 28, 2026).

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

After its next meeting, the Federal Reserve announces whether it will change the interest .

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.<1%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by October 27, 2026.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart
-Yes chance

Recorded moves

  • The price fell 11.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 11.5¢ to 0.1¢. An official release came out at the same time: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement.

    ● Official news · federalreserve.gov9m ago

  • The price fell 11.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 23.5¢ to 12¢. No official release came out at that time.

    ▲ No official news at the time · federalreserve.gov2h ago

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsMoved with official news
Fine-print risk
Medium (35/100)
settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. -11.5 points move matched to "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement" (published 29m ago).
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 2:00 PM ET.

Recent official releases on this topic (FED)

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Dec 9, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading picked up (about 8 times the usual hourly amount).

    1h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

The October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on October 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the October Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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