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Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

.gov source: federalreserve.gov

The short version

How to read this page

There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available.

Low surprise risk: the Fed settles it based on the condition as written.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

No live order bookRule note: stated conditionSettled by .gov source: federalreserve.gov
Chance the crowd gives Yes
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no live price
Buyers vs sellers near the price
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no order book read
Fine-print risk
Low (10/100)
Stated Condition
  • Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

.gov source: federalreserve.gov
Fine-print risk: Low (10/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 10
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Federal Reserve Board / FOMC · https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting)."
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver