Other

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?

56% say yes

Down 2 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 56¢ means about a 56% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.56%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2027.
NoIt doesn’t happen.44%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, the market settles as "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also settle as "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, the market settles as the highest range bracket.

Price chart

Yes 56%No 44%

-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (20/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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