Other

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?

39% say yes

Up 3 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 39¢ means about a 39% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.39%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.61%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, the market settles as "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also settle as "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, the market settles as the highest range bracket.

Price chart

Yes 39%No 61%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (20/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31…”
“If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.