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Geopolitics

Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?

<1% say yes

Down 4 points today.

Decided by the election on October 27, 2026, using official government/military statements plus a credible reporting.

Polymarket lists October 27, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until December 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

Possible results

  • YesThe person named in the question wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by October 27, 2026.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other”.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 4 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading picked up (about 5 times the usual hourly amount).

    2h ago

  • Trading picked up (about 7 times the usual hourly amount).

    2h ago

  • Trading picked up (about 5 times the usual hourly amount).

    3h ago

  • Trading picked up (about 3 times the usual hourly amount).

    3h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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