Culture

Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?

<1% say yes

Down 35 points today.

Decided by youtube.com, by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe count or result in the question is what actually happens.<1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 44.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 44¢ to 0.1¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: youtube.com2h ago
The price fell 53.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 60.5¢ to 7¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: youtube.com3h ago
The price fell 10.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 64.5¢ to 54¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: youtube.com5h ago
The price fell 33.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 77.5¢ to 44¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: youtube.com5h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by youtube.com

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: youtube.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: youtube.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
52m ago
Trading rose to about 10 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago
Trading rose to about 11 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being…”
“If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.”
“If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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