Geopolitics
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
39% say yes
Up 14 points today.
Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2026.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 39¢ means about a 39% chance.
Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .
Possible results
YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.39%
What has to happen
The listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.61%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.
The one trap
The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.
