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Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

<1% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by LMArena / Chatbot Arena leaderboard, by December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.<1%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.

See all fine print
  • If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”).
Price chart
-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by lmarena.ai
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, Yes orders vs No orders in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on LMArena / Chatbot Arena leaderboard (lmarena.ai), style control off. Is read at the stated check time. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: lmarena.ai (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.

    25m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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