US Elections
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?
<1% say Michel Barnier wins
No price change recorded today yet.
Polymarket lists April 18, 2027 as the end date, but the rules allow until December 31, 2027.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.
Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
There is one market for each possible winner (45 in all).
Possible results
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen wins the election.44%
What has to happen
Marine Le Pen wins, under the rules.
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe wins the election.18%
What has to happen
Édouard Philippe wins, under the rules.
David LisnardDavid Lisnard wins the election.14%
What has to happen
David Lisnard wins, under the rules.
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon wins the election.12%
What has to happen
Jean-Luc Mélenchon wins, under the rules.
Show 41 more results
Raphaël GlucksmannRaphaël Glucksmann wins the election.4%
What has to happen
Raphaël Glucksmann wins, under the rules.
François HollandeFrançois Hollande wins the election.3%
What has to happen
François Hollande wins, under the rules.
Jordan BardellaJordan Bardella wins the election.1%
What has to happen
Jordan Bardella wins, under the rules.
Bruno RetailleauBruno Retailleau wins the election.1%
What has to happen
Bruno Retailleau wins, under the rules.
Éric ZemmourÉric Zemmour wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Éric Zemmour wins, under the rules.
Gabriel AttalGabriel Attal wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Gabriel Attal wins, under the rules.
Dominique de VillepinDominique de Villepin wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Dominique de Villepin wins, under the rules.
Sarah KnafoSarah Knafo wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Sarah Knafo wins, under the rules.
Christine LagardeChristine Lagarde wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Christine Lagarde wins, under the rules.
Xavier BertrandXavier Bertrand wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Xavier Bertrand wins, under the rules.
Sébastien LecornuSébastien Lecornu wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Sébastien Lecornu wins, under the rules.
Marion MaréchalMarion Maréchal wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Marion Maréchal wins, under the rules.
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
François Ruffin wins, under the rules.
Ségolène RoyalSégolène Royal wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Ségolène Royal wins, under the rules.
François AsselineauFrançois Asselineau wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
François Asselineau wins, under the rules.
Jean CastexJean Castex wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Jean Castex wins, under the rules.
Natacha PolonyNatacha Polony wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Natacha Polony wins, under the rules.
Laurent WauquiezLaurent Wauquiez wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Laurent Wauquiez wins, under the rules.
Marine TondelierMarine Tondelier wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Marine Tondelier wins, under the rules.
Fabien RousselFabien Roussel wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Fabien Roussel wins, under the rules.
Olivier FaureOlivier Faure wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Olivier Faure wins, under the rules.
Clémentine AutainClémentine Autain wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Clémentine Autain wins, under the rules.
Nicolas Dupont-AignanNicolas Dupont-Aignan wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan wins, under the rules.
Michel BarnierMichel Barnier wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Michel Barnier wins, under the rules.
Valérie PécresseValérie Pécresse wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Valérie Pécresse wins, under the rules.
François BayrouFrançois Bayrou wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
François Bayrou wins, under the rules.
Élisabeth BorneÉlisabeth Borne wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Élisabeth Borne wins, under the rules.
Yaël Braun-PivetYaël Braun-Pivet wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Yaël Braun-Pivet wins, under the rules.
Gérald DarmaninGérald Darmanin wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Gérald Darmanin wins, under the rules.
Carole DelgaCarole Delga wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Carole Delga wins, under the rules.
Bernard CazeneuveBernard Cazeneuve wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Bernard Cazeneuve wins, under the rules.
Manuel BompardManuel Bompard wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Manuel Bompard wins, under the rules.
Mathilde PanotMathilde Panot wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Mathilde Panot wins, under the rules.
Juan BrancoJuan Branco wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Juan Branco wins, under the rules.
Clémence GuettéClémence Guetté wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Clémence Guetté wins, under the rules.
Karim BouamraneKarim Bouamrane wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Karim Bouamrane wins, under the rules.
Lucie CastetsLucie Castets wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Lucie Castets wins, under the rules.
Yannick JadotYannick Jadot wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Yannick Jadot wins, under the rules.
François BaroinFrançois Baroin wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
François Baroin wins, under the rules.
Anasse KazibAnasse Kazib wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Anasse Kazib wins, under the rules.
Sylvain DurifSylvain Durif wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Sylvain Durif wins, under the rules.
Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.
The one trap
Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Ministry of the Interior.
See all fine print
- Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.