Geopolitics

Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

<1% say Marco Rubio will be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

Nicolás MaduroNicolás Maduro wins.94%
What has to happen
Nicolás Maduro wins, under the rules.
Delcy RodríguezDelcy Rodríguez wins.4%
What has to happen
Delcy Rodríguez wins, under the rules.
María Corina MachadoMaría Corina Machado wins.<1%
What has to happen
María Corina Machado wins, under the rules.
Edmundo GonzálezEdmundo González wins.<1%
What has to happen
Edmundo González wins, under the rules.

Show 3 more results

Pete HegsethPete Hegseth wins.<1%
What has to happen
Pete Hegseth wins, under the rules.
Marco RubioMarco Rubio wins.<1%
What has to happen
Marco Rubio wins, under the rules.
Jorge RodríguezJorge Rodríguez wins.<1%
What has to happen
Jorge Rodríguez wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

The official result comes from the UN recognized government of Venezuela.

See all fine print

If no distinction is made, the market settles as the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position the market settles as “No Head of State”.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs formal signingNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the date it takes effect

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Wed, Dec 30, 2026, 7:00 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
24m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela.”
“The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective…”
“For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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