US Elections

Will Lionel Messi win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

<1% say Lionel Messi wins

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by the election on October 24, 2027, using major news reports.

Results can take until October 31, 2028.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. There is one market for each possible winner (3 in all).

Possible results

Patricia BullrichPatricia Bullrich wins the election.3%
What has to happen
Patricia Bullrich wins, under the rules.
Lionel MessiLionel Messi wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Lionel Messi wins, under the rules.
Alberto FernándezAlberto Fernández wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Alberto Fernández wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results.

See all fine print

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by electoral.gob.ar (tiebreak)

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (electoral.gob.ar) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Oct 23, 2027, 8:00 PM ET.

Source named: electoral.gob.ar (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.”
“If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.