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Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

Named source: data.usbr.gov · End date Apr 15, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes about 96% on “Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft”.

It rose 10 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: observed eventSettled by data.usbr.gov
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
Observed Event

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: data.usbr.gov. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Observed Event" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Wed, Mar 31, 2027 (deadline) Deadline: Wed, Mar 31, 2027 (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: data.usbr.gov (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: data.usbr.gov
Fine-print risk: Low (0/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 0
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Named URL in rules: data.usbr.gov · https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508
2.
Deadline and time zone
Wed, Mar 31, 2027 (deadline) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Observed EventSettles when the described event is observed and reported by the named source. Rule text: "…et creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 3,510.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver