US Elections
Will Lai Jui-lung win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?
88% say Lai Jui-lung wins
Down 1 point today.
Decided by the election on November 28, 2026, using major news reports.
Results can take until June 30, 2027.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 88¢ means about an 88% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. There is one market for each possible winner (6 in all).
Possible results
Lai Jui-lungLai Jui-lung wins the election.88%
What has to happen
Lai Jui-lung wins, under the rules.
Ko Chih-enKo Chih-en wins the election.13%
What has to happen
Ko Chih-en wins, under the rules.
Lin Tai-huaLin Tai-hua wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Lin Tai-hua wins, under the rules.
Chiu Yi-yingChiu Yi-ying wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Chiu Yi-ying wins, under the rules.
Show 2 more results
Hsu Chih-chiehHsu Chih-chieh wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Hsu Chih-chieh wins, under the rules.
Chang ChingChang Ching wins the election.<1%
What has to happen
Chang Ching wins, under the rules.
Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.
The one trap
If no winner is known by June 30, 2027, the market settles as “Other”.
See all fine print
- Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Central Election Commission.
- Someone holding the job temporarily before the election doesn’t count.
- Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
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