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US Elections

Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?

93% say John Thune will be the next US Senate Minority Leader

Up 1 point today.

Decided by major news reports, by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Results can take until June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 93¢ means about a 93% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • John ThuneJohn Thune wins.93%

    What has to happen

    John Thune wins, under the rules.

  • Tom CottonTom Cotton wins.2%

    What has to happen

    Tom Cotton wins, under the rules.

  • John BarrassoJohn Barrasso wins.1%

    What has to happen

    John Barrasso wins, under the rules.

  • Patty MurrayPatty Murray wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Patty Murray wins, under the rules.

Show 5 more results
  • Rick ScottRick Scott wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Rick Scott wins, under the rules.

  • Mark KellyMark Kelly wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Mark Kelly wins, under the rules.

  • Chuck SchumerChuck Schumer wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Chuck Schumer wins, under the rules.

  • Brian SchatzBrian Schatz wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Brian Schatz wins, under the rules.

  • Cory BookerCory Booker wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Cory Booker wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: major news reports, by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If no Senate Minority Leader is chosen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other”.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Jan 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the individual who is chosen to be the first Senate Minority Leader in the Congress that convenes after the…”
  • “If no Senate Minority Leader is chosen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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